Evaluación del trabajo colaborativo en Iniciación a la Investigación en Biología

Tras el trabajo previo de diseño de la asignatura Iniciación a la Investigación en Biología, el equipo multidisciplinar de profesores y profesoras de la Red Docente INVES ha desarrollado una metodología propia de trabajo en equipo, no sólo entre el diferente profesorado que la compone, sino también con el profesorado de la asignatura Estadística, con la que se comparten objetivos de aprendizaje comunes. Se ha optimizado el sistema de evaluación del trabajo colaborativo del alumnado, mediante el uso de rubricas y auto-evaluación. Dicho trabajo consiste en el diseño y desarrollo de un proyecto de investigación bibliométrico de temática biológica realizado por los estudiantes, propiciando la adquisición de competencias transversales mediante una dinámica de trabajo en grupo que culmina en la edición de unas Jornadas Científicas. Por otra parte, se han consensuado criterios comunes de evaluación continua, mejorando en la eficiencia de la evaluación, y determinado un incremento de la capacidad de aprendizaje del alumnado a lo largo de los cursos 2010-11 al 2013-14. La oferta formativa se completa mediante la formación de un grupo de Alto Rendimiento Académico con docencia en lengua inglesa. Esto permite al alumnado implementar el objetivo general de compresión de lengua extranjera inglés en lo relativo al ámbito científico

Avances en el trabajo colaborativo en Iniciación a la Investigación en Biología

Un equipo multidisciplinar de profesores y profesoras que componen la Red Docente INVES e imparten docencia en la asignatura Iniciación a la Investigación en Biología, ha desarrollado una metodología propia de trabajo en equipo, en coordinación con el profesorado de la asignatura Estadística, con la que se comparten objetivos de aprendizaje comunes. El sistema de evaluación del trabajo colaborativo del alumnado se ha optimizado mediante el uso de rúbricas y auto-evaluación. Se ha propiciado la adquisición de competencias transversales mediante una dinámica de trabajo en grupo. El diseño y desarrollo de un proyecto de investigación bibliométrico, de temática biológica, es realizado por los y las estudiantes, y culmina con la edición de unas Jornadas Científicas. Con el fin de mejorar la eficiencia de la evaluación, se han consensuado criterios comunes de evaluación continua entre el profesorado. Ello ha determinado un incremento de la capacidad de aprendizaje del alumnado a lo largo de los cursos 2010-11 al 2013-14. La lectura y compresión de textos científicos en inglés junto a la formación de un grupo de Alto Rendimiento Académico con docencia en lengua inglesa completa la oferta formativa, permitiendo al alumnado implementar el objetivo general de compresión de lengua extranjera inglés en lo relativo al ámbito científico

Usefulness of manufactured tomato extracts in the diagnosis of tomato sensitization: Comparison with the prick-prick method

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Commercial available skin prick test with fruits can be negative in sensitized or allergic patients due to a reduction in biological activity during the manufacturing process. Prick-prick tests with fresh foods are often preferred, but they are a non-standardized procedure. The usefulness of freeze-dried extracts of Canary Islands tomatoes, comparing the wheal sizes induced by prick test with the prick-prick method in the diagnosis of tomato sensitization has been analyzed.</p> <p>The objective of the study was to assess the potential diagnostic of freeze-dried extracts of Canary Islands tomatoes, comparing the wheal sizes induced by prick test with the prick-prick method.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two groups of patients were analyzed: Group I: 26 individuals reporting clinical symptoms induced by tomato contact or ingestion. Group II: 71 control individuals with no symptoms induced by tomato: 12 of them were previously skin prick test positive to a tomato extract, 39 were atopic and 20 were non-atopic. All individuals underwent prick-prick with fresh ripe peel Canary tomatoes and skin prick tested with freeze-dried peel and pulp extracts obtained from peel and pulp of Canary tomatoes at 10 mg/ml. Wheal sizes and prick test positivity (≥ 7 mm²) were compared between groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In group I, 21 (81%) out of 26 patients were prick-prick positive. Twenty patients (77%) had positive skin prick test to peel extracts and 12 (46%) to pulp extracts. Prick-prick induced a mean wheal size of 43.81 ± 40.19 mm²compared with 44.25 ± 36.68 mm²induced by the peel extract (Not significant), and 17.79 ± 9.39 mm²induced by the pulp extract (p < 0.01).</p> <p>In group II, 13 (18%) out of 71 control patients were prick-prick positive. Twelve patients (all of them previously positive to peel extract) had positive skin prick test to peel and 3 to pulp. Prick-prick induced a mean wheal size of 28.88 ± 13.12 mm²compared with 33.17 ± 17.55 mm²induced by peel extract (Not significant), and 13.33 ± 4.80 mm²induced by pulp extract (p < 0.05 with peel extract and prick-prick).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Canary peel tomato extract seems to be as efficient as prick-prick tests with ripe tomatoes to diagnose patients sensitized to tomato. The wheal sizes induced by prick-prick and peel extracts were very similar and showed a high correlation coefficient.</p

Changes in the gene expression profiles of the brains of male European eels (Anguilla anguilla) during sexual maturation

Background: The vertebrate brain plays a critical role in the regulation of sexual maturation and reproduction by integrating environmental information with developmental and endocrine status. The European eel Anguilla anguilla is an important species in which to better understand the neuroendocrine factors that control reproduction because it is an endangered species, has a complex life cycle that includes two extreme long distance migrations with both freshwater and seawater stages and because it occupies a key position within the teleost phylogeny. At present, mature eels have never been caught in the wild and little is known about most aspects of reproduction in A. anguilla. The goal of this study was to identify genes that may be involved in sexual maturation in experimentally matured eels. For this, we used microarrays to compare the gene expression profiles of sexually mature to immature males. Results: Using a false discovery rate of 0.05, a total of 1,497 differentially expressed genes were identified. Of this set, 991 were expressed at higher levels in brains (forebrain and midbrain) of mature males while 506 were expressed at lower levels relative to brains of immature males. The set of up-regulated genes includes genes involved in neuroendocrine processes, cell-cell signaling, neurogenesis and development. Interestingly, while genes involved in immune system function were down-regulated in the brains of mature males, changes in the expression levels of several receptors and channels were observed suggesting that some rewiring is occurring in the brain at sexual maturity. Conclusions: This study shows that the brains of eels undergo major changes at the molecular level at sexual maturity that may include re-organization at the cellular level. Here, we have defined a set of genes that help to understand the molecular mechanisms controlling reproduction in eels. Some of these genes have previously described functions while many others have roles that have yet to be characterized in a reproductive context. Since most of the genes examined here have orthologs in other vertebrates, the results of this study will contribute to the body of knowledge concerning reproduction in vertebrates as well as to an improved understanding of eel biology.Peer Reviewe

Galaxy clusters and groups in the ALHAMBRA Survey

We present a catalogue of 348 galaxy clusters and groups with $0.2<z<1.2$ selected in the 2.78 $deg^2$ ALHAMBRA Survey. The high precision of our photometric redshifts, close to $1\%$, and the wide spread of the seven ALHAMBRA pointings ensure that this catalogue has better mass sensitivity and is less affected by cosmic variance than comparable samples. The detection has been carried out with the Bayesian Cluster Finder (BCF), whose performance has been checked in ALHAMBRA-like light-cone mock catalogues. Great care has been taken to ensure that the observable properties of the mocks photometry accurately correspond to those of real catalogues. From our simulations, we expect to detect galaxy clusters and groups with both $70\%$ completeness and purity down to dark matter halo masses of $M_h\sim3\times10^{13}\rm M_{\odot}$ for $z<0.85$. Cluster redshifts are expected to be recovered with $\sim0.6\%$ precision for $z<1$. We also expect to measure cluster masses with $\sigma_{M_h|M^*_{CL}}\sim0.25-0.35\, dex$ precision down to $\sim3\times10^{13}\rm M_{\odot}$, masses which are $50\%$ smaller than those reached by similar work. We have compared these detections with previous optical, spectroscopic and X-rays work, finding an excellent agreement with the rates reported from the simulations. We have also explored the overall properties of these detections such as the presence of a colour-magnitude relation, the evolution of the photometric blue fraction and the clustering of these sources in the different ALHAMBRA fields. Despite the small numbers, we observe tentative evidence that, for a fixed stellar mass, the environment is playing a crucial role at lower redshifts (z$<$0.5).Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Catalogues and figures available online and under the following link: http://bascaso.net46.net/ALHAMBRA_clusters.htm

Time-of-Flight Detector for the Characterisation of Laser-Accelerated Protons

[Otros] Lasers of ultra-high intensity focused on thin targets can form plasmas and release large numbers of charged particles with kinetic energies in the MeV region. The characterization of the accelerated particles requires suitable detectors. We present a time-of-flight detector based on a plastic scintillator optimized for the spectral analysis of laser-accelerated protons. All details of the detector layout are adapted to the expected properties of the proton beam. Particle energies will be separated by the time-of-flight technique over 200 cm path length. The active area (25 mm width) corresponds to a few mrad opening angle. With 5 mm thickness the detector is capable of absorbing protons up to 22.5 MeV. A very thin, aluminized mylar foil shields the scintillator from outer light while absorbing very little particle energy. The scintillation photons are measured with a photomultiplier tube coupled through a bundle of optical fibres. The coupling of these fibres via a PMMA light guide has been previously optimized in simulations with Litrani. A critical aspect of the detection of virtually large numbers of protons emitted in femtosecond pulses is the saturation of the PMT. The latter can be avoided by use of appropriate optical filters. With these the effective dynamic range starts from single particles over several orders of magnitude. Our time-of-flight detector has been calibrated at the Spanish National Accelerator Centre at Sevilla. Proton beams from 0.46 to 5.6 MeV from a tandem accelerator have been used to measure the relation between particle energy and pulse heights. Further tests have been performed with a pulsed electron beam to simulate many-particle hits.Project funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and co-funded with FEDER¿s funds within the INNPACTO 2011 program, Grant No. IPT-2011-0862- 900000. This work was supported by the Spanish Plan Nacional de Investigacion Científica, Desarrollo e Innovacion Tecnológica (I+D+i) under Grant No. FIS2010-21216-CO2-01 and the Valencian Local Government under Grants PROMETEOII/2013/010 and ISIC 2011/013Seimetz, M.; Bellido, P.; Soriano, A.; Huertas, C.; García Lopez, J.; Jimenez-Ramos, MC.; Fernandez, B.... (2013). Time-of-Flight Detector for the Characterisation of Laser-Accelerated Protons. IEEE. 25-28. https://doi.org/10.1109/NSSMIC.2013.6829804S252

Dosimetric Calibration of Radiochromic Film For Laser-accelerated Proton Beams

[Otros] When an ultra-intense and ultra-short laser pulse interacts with solid matter a fraction of the laser pulse can be converted into kinetic energy of a beam of charged particles. Radiochromic film (RCF), widely used as radiation detector in the field of conventional radiotherapy, can be used as detector for laser-accelerated protons. If used in stack configuration it is a useful and versatile tool to obtain 2D spatial distribution and energetic information of proton beams. In order to obtain dosimetric information from RCF it must be properly calibrated. Irradiating film pieces under well known conditions allows us to establish a relation between the optical density (OD) of the radiochromic film, which is measured through a flat bed scanner operating in transmission mode, and the deposited energy in the active layer. A calibration curve over a large dynamic range (3 orders of magnitude) has been obtained for few MeV protons. Our calibration process has been performed at the Spanish National Accelerator Center at Sevilla. We have irradiated several areas of a single RCF with a constant 50 pA beam current and fixed 4 MeV energy from a 3 MV tandem accelerator. We have calculated the deposited energy in the films under the same conditions. We demonstrate that this technique can be used to measure the spectrum and total energy of a laser-accelerated mixed-energy proton beam. This detector has been calibrated for a near future application at the Center of Pulsed, Ultra-short, Ultra-intense Lasers (CLPU) at Salamanca (Spain). We present the calibration procedure and results, the design optimization, and a comparison with similar experiments.Project funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and co-funded with FEDERs funds within the INNPACTO 2011 program. This work was supported by the Spanish Plan Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica, Desarrollo e InnovacionTecnologica (I+D+i) under Grant No. FIS2010-21216-CO2-01 and the Valencian Local Government under Grants PROMETEOII/2013/010 and ISIC 2011/013.Bellido, P.; Seimetz, M.; Soriano, A.; Huertas, C.; García Lopez, J.; Jimenez-Ramos, MC.; Fernandez, B.... (2013). Dosimetric Calibration of Radiochromic Film For Laser-accelerated Proton Beams. IEEE. 20-23. https://doi.org/10.1109/NSSMIC.2013.6829806S202

Monetary Policy Report - January 2021

Macroeconomic Summary Overall inflation (1.61%) and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) (1.11%) both declined beyond the technical staff’s expectations in the fourth quarter of 2020. Year-end 2021 forecasts for both indicators were revised downward to 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Market inflation expectations also fell over this period and suggested inflation below the 3% target through the end of this year, rising to the target in 2022. Downward pressure on inflation was more significant in the fourth quarter than previously projected, indicating weak demand. Annual deceleration among the main groups of the consumer price index (CPI) was generalized and, except for foods, was greater than projected in the October report. The CPI for goods (excluding foods and regulated items) and the CPI for regulated items were subject to the largest decelerations and forecasting discrepancies. In the first case, this was due in part to a greater-than-expected effect on prices from the government’s “VAT-fee day” amid weak demand, and from the extension of some price relief measures. For regulated items, the deceleration was caused in part by unanticipated declines in some utility prices. Annual change in the CPI for services continued to decline as a result of the performance of those services that were not subject to price relief measures, in particular. Although some of the overall decline in inflation is expected to be temporary and reverse course in the second quarter of 2021, various sources of downward pressure on inflation have become more acute and will likely remain into next year. These include ample excesses in capacity, as suggested by the continued and greater-than-expected deceleration in core inflation indicators and in the CPI for services excluding price relief measures. This dynamic is also suggested by the minimal transmission of accumulated depreciation of the peso on domestic prices. Although excess capacity should fall in 2021, the decline will likely be slower than projected in the October report amid additional restrictions on mobility due to a recent acceleration of growth in COVID-19 cases. An additional factor is that low inflation registered at the end of 2020 will likely be reflected in low price adjustments on certain indexed services with significant weight in the CPI, including real estate rentals and some utilities. These factors should keep inflation below the target and lower than estimates from the previous report on the forecast horizon. Inflation is expected to continue to decline to levels near 1% in March, later increasing to 2.3% at the end of 2021 and 2.7% at year-end 2022 (Graph 1.1). According to the Bank’s most recent survey, market analysts expect inflation of 2.7% and 3.1% in December 2021 and 2022, respectively. Expected inflation derived from government bonds was 2% for year-end 2021, while expected inflation based on bonds one year forward from that date (FBEI 1-1 2022) was 3.2%.Box I. Macroeconomic Expectations: Analysis of the Monthly Survey of Economic Analyst Expectations. Authors: Hernando Vargas, Alexander Guarín, Anderson Grajales, César Anzola, Jonathan Muño

Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.Box 1. The Transmission of Changes in the Monetary Policy Interest Rate (MPR) to Credit Institutions’ Interest Rates (CI). Authors: Isleny Carranza Amortegui, Deicy Cristiano Botia, Eliana González Molano, Carlos Huertas CamposBox 2. Analysis of Macroeconomic Expectations implicit in Financial Market Instruments. Authors: Hernando Vargas, Alexander Guarín, Anderson Grajales-Olarte, Jonathan Muño